But he must be happy in his world (lyric credit to XTC 1979)
I consume a lot of political news, way too much. The morbidly fascinating ‘West Wing Live’ series takes up a lot of my scrolling time. Reluctantly, I turned my attention to the UK local election results on Friday morning, as the ‘vibes’ were telling me that Nigel was measuring up for Number 10, and ‘Lady’ Jenkyns, with her sequinned ball gown, was now in charge of Middle England. My daughter (happily based in Spain thanks to her Irish nan) texted me to say she was confused, ‘What do the results mean?’. So I attempted to clarify, but realised I was not sure myself.
Farage enjoyed his usual profile-enhancing round of media coverage throughout the run-up to the day, and the Tories suffered. Labour was now waffling, promising to work harder to deliver… (their apparently unpopular initiatives). Headlines included: ‘Nigel Farage shakes British politics with election gains’ (FT), Nigel Farage’s breakthrough spells painful lessons for Labour (Telegraph).
We will see how this plays out, but it’s worth bearing in mind the context here.
Approximately 1,641 council seats were contested across 24 local authorities in England. There are over 18,000 council seats across the UK, so only about 9% of all UK council seats were up for election.
These elections were held only in England; there were no local elections in Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland during this cycle.
The results are significant, but represent only a snapshot of voter sentiment in specific regions rather than a comprehensive national shift.
Reform secured 677 council seats and took control of 10 councils, so that’s an obvious shift in local governance for those areas. They achieved a narrow victory in the Runcorn & Helsby parliamentary by-election, flipping a long-standing Labour seat and replacing Mike (Haymaker) Amesbury, currently reflecting upon his decision-making, in a cell somewhere. Cheers Mike.
- Liberal Democrats: Had a good result, especially in former Conservative strongholds, gaining control of councils like Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, and Shropshire.
- Green Party: Also increased their representation, reflecting growing environmental concerns among voters.
- The Guardian has a good round-up with a helpful graphic here
While the BBC’s “Projected National Share” suggested Reform UK could lead nationally with 30% of the vote, the projection is based on local election results and doesn’t directly translate to general election outcomes.
Local election successes don’t always mirror national election results, as we know. Variations in voter turnout and the different issues at stake at the time of General Elections make it a whole new ball game.. So, while Reform rise is worth analysing, it’s not a definitive indicator of a parliamentary takeover.
My fingers are crossed.
#UKElections2025 #PoliticalContext #ReformUK #LocalElections